Disarmament and International Security
DISEC Introductory Letter
DISEC Topic Guides
Director: Andrew Wicks
Topic A: Lebanon Political Deadlock
The assassination of reformist Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri on February 14, 2005 sparked a political uprising in Lebanon known as the Cedar Revolution in the west and Intifada al-istiqlal (Independence Uprising) in the Middle East. Political activists protested Syrian interference in Lebanese politics, especially the presence of Syrian troops in Lebanon, and a pro-Syrian government accused of being Damascus puppets. Massive street protests, drawing as many as one million people in a country with a population of four million, paralyzed the government. Syria was forced to remove its military and intelligence presence from Lebanon, although the president is still a pro-Syrian candidate. A United Nations investigation suggested that the assassination may have been ordered from Syria.
Free parliamentary elections saw a distinct divide between religious parties. Today the government remains paralyzed after the resignation of the former prime minister and squabbling between political factions. Michael Aoun, the present head of the military is being discussed to take over the position of Prime Minister. However, the parliament has continued to delay such an election, raising questions about when order will be restored to Lebanon. The situation was further complicated by the 2006 summer war between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and a lengthy stand-off between the Lebanese military and Fatah al-Islam, an Islamic extremist group operating from inside of one of Lebanon's several large Palestinian refugee camps.
Topic B: Russian Federation Withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) and the United States of America's Planned Missile Defense Shield
In 1999, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) worked with Russia and several former Soviet states to create an adapted version of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), to address territorial and governmental changes that had occurred since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Specifically, the adapted treaty called for Russian withdrawal of troops, arms and military equipment, and closure of bases in Moldova by the end of 2002 and Georgia by the end of 2008. All thirty members, party to these discussions signed the adapted treaty, however, only Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan have ratified it. The NATO nations have refused ratification until Russian withdrawal is complete. The Russian Federation claims it made no clear commitment to remove all troops, and a lack of ratification by NATO nations have essentially nullified the agreement.
In response to growing United States influence in Eastern Europe, especially former Soviet bloc nations, the Russian Federation withdrew from the adapted treaty in November 2007. In a move mostly seen as a flexing of political muscle, the Russian Federation's withdrawal was closely tied to developing plans for the United States to construct a missile defense shield in several Eastern European nations. Specifically, the United States has been working on agreements to build a radar system in the Czech Republic and a missile defense site in Poland. These sites would provide missile protection not only to the United States, but also Europe.